In this week’s recap: Debt ceiling raised until December; employment numbers paint confusing picture.
Weekly Economic Update
Presented by William Mauro, October 11, 2021
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
The overhang of bumping against the federal debt ceiling was lifted last week with an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December, helping propel stocks to a weekly gain.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.22%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 0.79%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.09%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was flat (+0.11%).1,2,3
DEBT CEILING CONCERNS EVAPORATE, FOR NOW
After suffering losses on concerns over delays with raising the federal debt ceiling, stocks rebounded as the Senate moved toward finalizing a debt ceiling agreement. While the agreement is only a short-term solution, it was enough to embolden investors to buy stocks.
The week’s rally ran out of gas on Friday, however, on a surprisingly weak employment report. Though the debt ceiling was the dominant concern in the markets last week, the market grappled all week with the headwinds of higher energy prices, rising bond yields, inflation, and less robust economic growth.
FUZZY EMPLOYMENT PICTURE
Employment remains a confusing and unpredictable element of this post-pandemic economic recovery. Automated Data Processing’s employment report showed private sector jobs rose by a robust 568,000. This hiring surge may have been aided by the end of extended unemployment benefits and the return of children to school.4
This improving labor outlook was reinforced the following day as weekly initial jobless claims fell below their four-week moving average, while continuing claims fell by nearly 100,000. The employment report on Friday was a different story. The economy added a disappointing 194,000 jobs, making September the slowest month for job growth this year. The unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, while an increase in wages generated inflation worries.5,6
T I PÂ Â O FÂ Â T H EÂ Â W E E K
The first step to saving money is to figure out where you are spending it. Break down essential and inessential costs in your life.
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THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Minutes.
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Friday: Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Econoday, October 8, 2021
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Delta Airlines (DAL), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK).
Thursday: Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Citigroup, Inc. (C), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA), Morgan Stanley (MS).
Friday: J.B. Hunt Transportation, Inc. (JBHY), The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC).
Source: Zacks, October 8, 2021
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Q U O T EÂ Â O FÂ Â T H EÂ Â W E E K
“Nothing will ever be attempted, if all possible objections must be first overcome.â€
SAMUEL JOHNSON
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T H EÂ Â W E E K L YÂ Â R I D D L E
What do these words have in common: pig, pony, bob, dove, and cotton?
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LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: How is seven different from the rest of the numbers between one and ten?
ANSWER: Seven has two syllables and the other numbers only have one syllable.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
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CITATIONS:
- The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2021
- The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2021
- The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2021
- CNBC, October 6, 2021
- CNBC, October 7, 2021
- The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2021